8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Apr 2006

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 30/05/2006

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APRIL KEY FIGURES

		Apr 06	Mar 06 to Apr 06
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	17 830.6	0.6
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	17 912.7	1.4

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

APRIL KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.6% in April 2006. This follows revised increases of 0.7% in both March and February 2006.
In April 2006, the states with the largest increase in the trend estimate were Victoria (+1.0%) and the Northern Territory (+0.9%).

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 1.4% in April 2006. This follows a revised increase of 0.2% in March 2006 and an increase of 0.7% in February 2006.
All states, except Tasmania, had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate. The states with the largest increases were the Northern Territory (+3.1%) and Victoria (+2.7%).

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover decreased by 1.6% in April 2006 compared with March 2006. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) decreased by 0.8%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) decreased by 2.6%.
Australian turnover increased by 6.0% in April 2006 compared with April 2005. Chains and other large retailers increased by 8.0%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 3.4%.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
May 2006	3 July 2006
June 2006	2 August 2006
July 2006	30 August 2006
August 2006	3 October 2006
September 2006	2 November 2006
October 2006	30 November 2006

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

There are no changes in this issue.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for April 2006 contained in this publication are:

Data Series	Estimate	Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)	17 065.6	133.8
Change from preceding month ($m)	-273.6	87.5
% change from preceding month (%)	-1.6	0.5

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been moderate trend growth for the last five months. Hospitality and services had moderate growth in April 2006 after six months of strong growth and Other retailing has had six months of strong growth to April 2006. Food retailing, Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had moderate trend growth for at least three months.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate growth in the trend since December 2005. Victoria and the Northern Territory have had strong trend growth for the last three and two months respectively. Queensland has had moderate growth for the last four months, while New South Wales had weak trend growth in April 2006 after seven months of moderate growth.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been moderate trend growth for the last four months. There has been strong growth in Western Australia and Victoria for five and two months respectively. All other published states had moderate trend growth in April 2006.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth has been moderate for the last three months. The trend growth for New South Wales has increased to being moderate in April 2006 after two months of weak growth. In April 2006, Victoria had weak trend growth while Queensland was in decline. By contrast, Western Australia, Tasmania and South Australia have had strong trend growth for at least four months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been mostly weak trend growth for 12 months. New South Wales and South Australia have been weak or in decline over this period. Western Australia has had strong trend growth for the last four months. Victoria had moderate trend growth in March and April 2006.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend has been in decline for 12 months. New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania have been in decline for at least five months. Queensland, the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory had strong trend growth in April 2006.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

There has been strong growth in the trend for the last six months. All published states, except Queensland and South Australia, have had strong trend growth for at least the last five months.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate trend growth in the last five months. Over the last seven months, the trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has mostly been slower than Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been moderate or strong growth in the trend for 14 months. Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had strong growth for at least four months. Trend growth has been slowing in New South Wales, Queensland, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. For April 2006, although still positive in New South Wales (weak) and the Northern Territory (moderate), the trend was in decline in Queensland and Tasmania.

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been moderate trend growth for the last six months. Other retailing has had strong growth for five months, while Department stores have had moderate trend growth for four months. Clothing and soft good retailing had moderate trend growth in April 2006 after seven months of being weak or in decline.

VICTORIA

There has been strong trend growth for four months. Hospitality and services, Other retailing and Food retailing have had strong trend growth for at least the last three months. Department stores have been strengthening with strong growth in the last two months.

QUEENSLAND

There has been moderate trend growth for 14 months. Food retailing has had four months of moderate trend growth and Department stores and Other retailing had moderate trend growth in April 2006 after periods of strong growth. Recreational good retailing has had strong trend growth for the last three months. Hospitality and services was in decline in April 2006 for the first time since November 2004.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

There has been moderate growth in the trend estimate for five months. Department stores have had moderate trend growth over the last four months, while Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have had strong growth in that period. Food retailing has had moderate or strong growth in the last six months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

There has been strong growth in the trend estimate for four months. Department stores (five months), Clothing and soft good retailing (seven months), Household good retailing (four months), Other retailing (six months) and Hospitality and services (four months) have all had strong trend growth.

TASMANIA

The trend was flat in April 2006. The trends for Household good retailing, Hospitality and services and Recreational good retailing have been in decline for at least three months. Food retailing also fell into decline in April 2006. Clothing and soft good retailing continues to have strong trend growth.